FOUNDERJURY OUTCOME TRACKER

Do Our Verdicts Actually Predict Startup Success?

This page tracks how often FounderJury's verdicts match real-world outcomes. We monitor every public debate for 90–180 days after evaluation and log which ideas shipped, which were abandoned, which found customers, and which went silent. Until enough outcomes have closed, the live accuracy metric is marked "collecting" rather than claim precision. Numbers update automatically from the production database.

We track every debate outcome. No competitor does this. Here's our real data.

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Frequently asked questions

How many startup ideas fail?

Industry estimates put early-stage startup failure rates between 70% and 90% within five years, depending on the definition and cohort. FounderJury monitors every public debate for 90–180 days after evaluation, tracking whether the idea shipped, was abandoned, found customers, or went silent — then publishes verdict accuracy against real outcomes on this page.

What percentage of startup ideas succeed?

Definitions of 'success' vary — shipped a product, reached €1K MRR, raised funding, exited profitably. FounderJury's outcome tracker separates these four bands. Below 50 closed outcomes, we display 'collecting' rather than claim a percentage. Once the sample is statistically meaningful, the accuracy metric updates automatically from production debate data on this page.

This analysis is generated by AI models and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, legal, or professional advice. Accuracy metrics are based on passive outcome detection and may not reflect all outcomes.